Stop Buying Land Based on County Average Rainfall Numbers
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Earl Dunsten
45 minutes ago
👁 3 views💬 2 replies
County-level precipitation averages nearly cost me a chunk of change I didn't have. I looked at Nebraska climate data showing 18-22 inches annual rainfall for the region I was buying into and figured the hay meadows would perform close to what I was used to on my home ground. What those averages don't show is the micro-topography problem: the parcel I nearly closed on sat in a rain shadow created by a ridge to the southwest. Neighbors two miles away consistently pulled 20 inches. That ground averaged closer to 14. I only caught it by talking to the nearest neighbor, who'd been haying that meadow under a lease for eleven years. He knew exactly what that land produced in dry years versus wet ones. The county average meant nothing to that specific parcel. Before you make an offer on any grassland or hay ground, find whoever has actually worked that land and ask them directly what it produces in a drought year — not what the precipitation map says it should produce. Anyone else find that localized production history contradicts the regional data you walked in with?
Same lesson applies in reverse out here in southwest Kansas. County averages for Ford County show something respectable on paper, but I've got a neighbor three miles east who consistently pulls two more inches than me because his ground sits in a slight draw that funnels moisture. I've watched him grow dryland milo in years I couldn't justify planting. Before closing on any ground, get the FSA historical yield records for that specific farm — they'll tell you more than any climate map ever will.
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Dinah Sprecher
0 minutes ago
Solid warning, but I'd push back on one thing: the neighbor saved you, yes, but I've had neighbors quote me their worst dry years as 'typical' because that's what stuck in their memory. Cross-reference what neighbors tell you with the nearest NRCS SNOTEL or CoCoRaHS station if one exists nearby. On the Uncompahgre we have ridge-to-draw precipitation swings of 6-8 inches within a single section. County averages are nearly useless at that scale.