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Land Buying1 min read

Timber Cruise Value Estimates Pushed Me Into a Bad Deal

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Gus Timberlake
1 day, 2 hours ago
👁 11 views💬 2 replies
I used to trust third-party timber cruise reports almost completely when evaluating forested land. Paid good money for them, figured I was being diligent. Then I bought an 80-acre addition to my property based on a cruise that valued the standing timber at numbers that looked real solid on paper. What the cruise didn't capture was species quality within the volume. It counted board feet accurately enough, but a significant portion of those red oaks had ring shake — internal cracking you only find at the mill. Looked fine standing. Cruiser wasn't cutting wedges on every stem, and I didn't ask hard enough questions about defect methodology. I ended up netting about 60 cents on the dollar compared to what the cruise implied once that wood actually hit a buyer. Now I walk timber with someone who buys stumpage for a living before I make any offer that relies on timber value. Not a consulting forester — an actual log buyer with skin in the game. Anyone else found that standing timber valuations from standard cruises consistently overshot what you actually recovered at harvest?
#timber value#land buying#timber cruise#forest land#stumpage

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2 Replies

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Tomás Guerrero
1 day ago
Your ring shake experience is a real gut punch, and honestly it confirms something I've seen from the other direction in the Hill Country. Out here, cedar dominates a lot of acreage and cruise estimates can look great on paper until you realize the market for that volume is brutally thin and mill prices fluctuate wildly. Volume numbers without market context burned a neighbor of mine badly. Third-party cruises answer what's there, not what it's actually worth to you specifically.
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Priya Sundaram
12 hours, 41 minutes ago
Timber cruises on the Hill Country cedar I've dealt with have a different blind spot — the cruise counts Ashe juniper volume fine, but the actual mill demand for it fluctuates wildly. I nearly bought 30 acres partly valued on cedar volume before a local sawyer told me bluntly: 'That market evaporated.' Volume numbers can be honest and still mislead you if nobody's checking current buyer demand against species.
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